Newmont Corp (NEM) Technical Cheat Sheet Highlighting Key Levels and High Probability Trade Setups
Current Price: ~$89.65
Target Price: $110.00
Timeframe: 6–12 Months
Risk Profile: Medium (Execution Risk vs. Deep Value)
🏛️ The Fundamental Engine
| Metric | Data Point | Analysis |
| Valuation | 8.5x EV/EBITDA | Deep Discount. Peers (like AEM) trade at ~14x. Market pricing in permanent impairment; reversal offers 50%+ upside. |
| Cash Flow | $1.6B (Q3 Record) | Cash Cow. High gold prices (>$3,500/oz) act as a buffer against operational inefficiencies. |
| Margins | ~60% EBITDA | High Leverage. Massive operating leverage to gold price; 100/ozmove= 100/ozmove= 400M FCF. |
| Balance Sheet | 0.1x Net Debt | Pristine. Capacity for aggressive buybacks (floor on stock price) or special dividends. |
Key Drivers:
- Macro Tailwinds: “Golden Age” for precious metals; central bank buying + falling real rates.
- Portfolio Cleanup: Divestitures (Coffee, non-core) expected to streamline operations and flush cash to shareholders.
Primary Risks:
- Execution: History of missing guidance (Red Chris, Peñasquito). Another miss in Q4 ’25 destroys credibility.
- Cost Inflation: Sticky AISC ($1,566/oz) due to royalties/labor could compress margins.
📈 The Technical Setup
| Indicator | Status | Interpretation |
| Primary Trend | Bullish | Price >> 200D SMA ($65). Long-term uptrend remains intact. |
| Short-Term | Consolidation | Price > 50D SMA ($86.56). Forming a “Bull Flag” after October rally. |
| RSI (14D) | 55 (Neutral) | Reset. Overbought conditions cleared; room for another leg up before overheating. |
| Volume | Normalizing | Declining volume during consolidation suggests selling pressure is drying up. |
Key Levels:
- Resistance (Sell Zone): $98.50 – $100.00 (Double Top Highs). Breakout here triggers blue-sky run.
- Pivot Point: $90.00 (Psychological ceiling). Needs a daily close above this to confirm momentum.
- Support (Buy Zone): 80.00 (Strong Demand Zone).
🎯 The Trade Execution
Strategy: “Buy the Dip / Breakout Watch”
- Entry Zone (Sweet Spot): Accumulate positions between $86.50 and $88.00 (testing the 50-day moving average).
- Stop Loss: Hard stop on a daily close below $79.50. (Logic: Breaks the intermediate bullish structure and violates the demand zone).
- Take Profit (Tranche 1): $98.00 (Sell 1/3 into resistance to lock in gains).
- Take Profit (Tranche 2): $110.00 (Fibonacci extension / Valuation re-rating target).
Analyst Note:
“NEM is a coiled spring. The fundamentals provide the fuel (cheap valuation + record cash), and the technicals show the spring is compressing (consolidation above the 50-day SMA). We are waiting for the operational ‘spark’ in Q4 earnings to release the tension.”
This is AI-assisted market analysis for informational and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or trade any security.