Adobe (ADBE) Earnings and Technical Cheat Sheet: Dec 10, 2025

by MarketNewsData

Company Snapshot

  • Ticker: ADBE
  • Status: Down ~35% YTD (tax-loss selling pressure)
  • Earnings Date: Dec 10, 2025
  • Analyst Consensus: Beat expected; guidance is the pivot

Trend Overview

  • Short-Term Trend: Improving
  • Medium-Term Trend: Turning
  • Long-Term Trend: Downtrend (below 200-day)
  • Pattern: Falling Wedge + Bullish RSI Divergence
  • Setup: Coil → Catalyst Unlock (earnings)

Key Levels

Support:

  • $350
  • $335–340 (50-day support)
  • $325 (base)
  • $300 (wedge bottom)

Resistance:

  • $355
  • $368–370 (200-day SMA + Fib 23.6%)
  • $396–400 (Breakout Zone)
  • $420
  • $444 (Fib 61.8%)

Momentum

  • RSI(2): 99 (overbought)
  • RSI(14): 63 (bullish)
  • ADX(2): 100 (short-term thrust)
  • ADX(50): 20 (long-term trend weakening)
  • Williams %R: Overbought short-term

Takeaway:
Short-term stretched → consolidation likely.
Medium-term strength building.

Fibonacci Map (520 → 320 Swing)

  • 23.6%: ~368
  • 38.2%: ~396
  • 50%: ~420
  • 61.8%: ~444
  • 100%: 520

Breakout trigger: 396–400

Earnings History

  • 6 straight beats on revenue & EPS
  • Beats are small (0.5%–1.3%)
  • Growth stable at ~10–12% YoY
  • No acceleration → reason for multiple compression

Key Takeaways From Conference Call (Q3 2025)

Bullish Signals:

  • AI-influenced ARR > $5B
  • AI-first ARR > $250M (ahead of target)
  • Strong AI adoption: Acrobat AI, Express, Firefly
  • Creative Cloud Pro migration healthy
  • Enterprise AI demand accelerating (GenStudio, AEP)
  • Margins remain mid-40%

Missing / Risks:

  • No AI revenue breakout yet
  • No ARR acceleration
  • Seat → consumption transition risk
  • Canva competitive pressure
  • Lack of monetization KPIs (usage ≠ revenue)

Seasonality & Tax-Loss Impact

  • ADBE down 35% YTD → heavy tax-loss selling into December
  • Suppresses pre-earnings upside
  • Sets up January effect tailwind if earnings surprise

Earnings Setup for Dec 10

What market needs to see:

  1. FY26 revenue guide > 12%
  2. Clear evidence of AI monetization, not just usage
  3. Improving ARR trajectory (Creative Cloud + Firefly + agents)

Bullish Reaction:

  • Breaks $370, then $396–400
  • Targets: $420 → $444 → $475

Neutral / Fade Scenario (Most likely if guide is light):

  • Pop to $360–370 → fade to $340–350

Bearish Reaction:

  • Below $335 → test $325
  • Below $325 → $300 (wedge bottom)

Final View

Adobe is financially strong with surging AI adoption, but the stock needs proof of AI-driven revenue acceleration. The technical setup is bullish, but the downtrend only breaks if Dec 10 guidance exceeds expectations. This earnings call is the binary trigger that determines whether ADBE begins a new upcycle or remains range-bound.

This is AI-assisted market analysis for informational and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or trade any security.

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