Costco shares are down over 2% this year, the worst relative performance in over two decades. Comparable-store sales growth slowed to 6.4% in November, indicating a delay in big-ticket purchases by inflation-weary shoppers. A special dividend announcement on Dec. 11 is unlikely given the current underperformance.

Costco’s stock has historically outperformed with reliable dividends and special payouts. However, shares have faltered in 2025, down over 2% while the S&P 500 gained 17%. Factors include slowing sales growth, a membership fee hike, and a premium valuation affecting earnings growth.

Analysts expect Costco to report earnings of $4.27 per share and revenue of $67.15 billion for the fiscal first quarter 2026, implying 11% and 8% growth, respectively. Preliminary sales in November were $23.64 billion, up 8.1%, with management emphasizing warehouse expansions and e-commerce growth.

The historical record of Costco’s special dividends suggests a three-year cadence and better-than-average company performance. However, today’s soft comps and flat shares make a special dividend announcement unlikely. Investors should consider Costco’s competitive moat and long-term potential despite the current challenges.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Will Costco Announce a Special Dividend on Dec. 11?