Adobe stock (ADBE) is down more than 22% year-to-date, but options activity indicates a shift towards bullish sentiment. Net trade sentiment rose to $916,500 above parity midweek, with the final two days of last week totaling $25.69 million in net trade sentiment. Analysts are bullish on ADBE ahead of its earnings disclosure on Dec. 10.

To analyze the potential outcomes for Adobe stock, Barchart’s Expected Move calculator forecasts a range of $313.26 to $379.26 for the Jan. 16, 2026 options chain. A non-parametric distributional outcome predicts a clustering range of $342 to $364.50, with price likely to cluster at $362 based on historical stock tendencies.

For options traders, a vertical spread strategy like the 355/365 bull spread expiring Jan. 16, 2026 may be ideal for limited moves. Probability density suggests a higher likelihood of ADBE stock reaching $365, but drops significantly beyond $365. Traders should buy premiums associated with the realistic portion of the distribution curve and sell the rest.

Read more at Barchart: A Major Shift in Adobe’s (ADBE) Risk Geometry Points to Fresh Upside