Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn predicts 2026 as a challenging year to forecast for bitcoin, citing macro uncertainty and political risk. The firm maintains a bullish long-term outlook based on its report outlining expectations for crypto markets and institutional adoption.

Thorn notes the current bear phase in the broader crypto market, with bitcoin struggling to establish sustained bullish momentum. Downside risk remains until bitcoin decisively trades above $100,000 to $105,000.

Bitcoin options pricing indicates equal probabilities of various outcomes in 2026, with traders preparing for large price swings. Institutional investors are using options markets to hedge future price risk, suggesting readiness for significant price movements.

Thorn observes a decline in long-term bitcoin volatility, attributed to institutional strategies like options overwriting and yield-generation programs. The volatility smile shows downside protection priced higher than upside exposure, a sign of market maturation.

Despite potential range-bound price action in 2026, Thorn remains optimistic about bitcoin’s long-term case. Institutional adoption and market maturation are expected to continue, shaping outcomes into 2027 and beyond.

Galaxy Digital foresees deeper institutional integration for bitcoin, anticipating its inclusion in standard model portfolios. This move would embed the asset into default investment strategies, directing consistent flows regardless of market cycles.

Thorn sees bitcoin potentially following gold’s path as a hedge against monetary debasement, with the flagship cryptocurrency projected to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. Expanding institutional access and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could drive this growth.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Galaxy Digital’s head of research explains why bitcoin’s outlook is so uncertain in 2026