Sugar prices are up today, with March NY world sugar #11 and March London ICE white sugar #5 both showing gains. Safras & Mercado predicts a -3.91% decrease in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27, with exports expected to fall -11% to 30 MMT.

India may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, causing sugar prices to drop. India’s sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised by the India Sugar Mill Association, potentially boosting sugar exports.

Brazil and India’s increased sugar production estimates are driving a bearish outlook for sugar prices. Conab raised Brazil’s sugar production estimate for 2025/26, while India’s sugar production from October to December saw a significant increase.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus in 2025-26 due to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Czarnikow also raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate. Thailand is expected to see a +5% increase in its 2025/26 sugar crop.

The USDA projects record global sugar production and consumption for 2025/26, with sugar ending stocks expected to decrease. FAS predicts increased sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand for the same year. Brazil’s production is forecasted to reach a record 44.7 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices See Support on Safras Forecasts for 2026/27