Bitcoin’s price action in 2024-2025 showed a disconnect between improving onchain structure and macroeconomic constraints. The rally to above $100,000 was supported by stablecoin inflows and exchange outflows, but valuation was limited by real yields and Fed balance sheet contraction. Onchain strength drove the rally, with stablecoin inflows coinciding with BTC moving off exchanges, indicating accumulation-driven rallies.

Valuation metrics, like the MVRV ratio, expanded but stayed below overheating thresholds, supporting the rally without triggering profit realization. However, macroeconomic conditions with positive real yields and Fed balance sheet contraction imposed limits on Bitcoin’s returns in 2024. Despite this, Bitcoin recorded a 121% gain.

In 2025, Bitcoin faced volatility and price swings between $126,000 and $75,000, as stablecoin exchange inflows declined, signaling reduced buying power. Valuation metrics stabilized, unable to expand further, while macro conditions remained restrictive with positive real yields and further Fed balance sheet reduction.

The data suggests that onchain metrics define market structure while macro variables set valuation ceilings for Bitcoin. Stablecoin inflows and declining exchange balances prevent deep drawdowns, but another rally may depend on easing financial conditions. Monitoring onchain data alongside macro trends is crucial for investors to anticipate Bitcoin’s next rally triggered by falling real yields or global liquidity growth.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price Capped By Shifting Maco Conditions, Not Whale Selling