The commercial real estate outlook for 2026 has been shaped by a slower economy, increased tariffs, and immigration restrictions. However, interest rates are falling, unlocking more capital cautiously. Deloitte’s survey reveals a slightly less optimistic outlook compared to last year, with 68% expecting higher expenses in 2026.
In the U.S., the commercial real estate sector is entering 2026 with renewed momentum, increased visibility, and growing optimism. Cushman & Wakefield reports that the economy was more resilient than expected in 2025, driven by artificial intelligence. Capital is flowing again, interest rates are decreasing, and leasing fundamentals are stabilizing or improving.
Colliers predicts a new equilibrium in the industry, with bottomed-out office demand and growth in industrial sectors due to AI. PwC emphasizes the need for data-driven insight and strategic conviction in navigating the changing landscape of real assets.
Investor sentiment in commercial real estate weakened in the fourth quarter of this year, except in the retail sector. Multifamily investor sentiment declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, citing reasons such as elevated interest rates, economic uncertainty, and local regulatory burdens.
Colliers forecasts a 15% to 20% increase in sales volume in 2026 as capital reenters the market. CoStar predicts lower capitalization rates next year, with deal activity increasing and banks easing back into commercial real estate lending.
The office market is showing signs of price stability, with a flight to quality expected in Class A buildings. Industrial construction is down, but demand is rising due to reshoring and data center needs. Retail is shifting towards nontraditional leasing spaces, with smaller footprints becoming more popular.
Multifamily rents are easing, with a record level of new supply entering the market. Data centers have seen high demand, but face challenges in financing and local opposition. Public-to-private REIT transactions are expected to dominate in 2026, driven by scale, governance credibility, and cost of capital considerations.
Read more at CNBC: Commercial real estate 2026: What to expect