February WTI crude oil closed down -0.13% while February RBOB gasoline closed up +0.31% on Tuesday. Crude and gasoline prices settled mixed due to a stronger dollar and a bearish EIA inventory report. Geopolitical risks and OPEC+ plans to pause further production increases provided some support to crude prices.

OPEC+ delegates confirmed plans to pause supply hikes during a monthly video conference. Chinese crude demand is also rising, with imports expected to increase by 10% m/m to 12.2 million bpd. US strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria and a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers are impacting oil prices positively.

Tanker storage of crude oil rose by 15% w/w to 129.33 million bbl. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers, along with US and EU sanctions, are limiting Russian oil exports. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1-2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus.

OPEC revised global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus in Q3. US crude production exceeded expectations, contributing to a 500,000 bpd surplus. EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate. The weekly EIA report showed unexpected builds in crude and gasoline inventories.

US crude oil inventories are -3.3% below the 5-year average, while gasoline inventories are +0.7% above and distillate inventories are -5.1% below. US crude oil production fell slightly to 13.825 million bpd. The number of active US oil rigs rose by +3 to 412 rigs, recovering from a recent low.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Oil Prices Turn Lower as the Dollar Strengthens