In 2025, energy market trends shaped the global oil, gas, and energy equities markets. Geopolitical tensions, supply-demand balances, and challenges facing Big Oil will continue to impact markets in 2026. The oil market currently faces oversupply, with short-lived price swings due to geopolitical developments. The IEA predicts a 3.84 million bpd supply surplus in 2026, but analysts expect a market balance by 2027.

Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge in LNG exports and excess oil supply in 2026, with potential risks from disruptions in Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. Supply waves will drive oil and natural gas prices in the coming years, requiring lower oil prices post-2026 to rebalance the market. Rystad Energy predicts an upstream energy abundance in 2026, with potential downstream bottlenecks and rebounding primary energy prices in 2027-2028.

Strong refining margins, high refinery utilization rates, and elevated product crack spreads are expected in 2026. Resilient U.S. shale output is anticipated at WTI Crude prices of $60 per barrel, with companies aiming to defend maintenance production and lower payout ratios. Wood Mackenzie projects stalling Lower 48 oil production in 2026, with the Permian still dominating U.S. oil supply.

U.S. gas plays may become an M&A hotspot in 2026, posing strategic challenges for Big Oil, NOCs, and independents. Companies are preparing for lower oil prices, shifting capital from renewables to upstream oil and gas, and exploring frontier exploration prospects. Structural cost reductions, buyback cuts, and stronger foundations for the next decade are on the horizon to navigate the market challenges ahead.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Big Oil Prepares for Leaner Prices and Harder Choices in 2026