The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped by 89 basis points in 2025, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage interest rates are determined by factors like the 10-year Treasury yield. Forecasts can be derived from trends in 10-year Treasury note rates, with predictions for the next five years made by economists.

Economist Michael Wolf from Deloitte forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield to remain above 4.1% through 2030. Goldman Sachs analysts expect it to rise to 4.5% by 2035. The Congressional Budget Office predicts a yield of 3.9% by 2026 and 3.8% by 2030. Various predictions are compared to form a baseline forecast.

The spread between 10-year Treasurys and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has been fluctuating. Historical spreads have been around 2.5 percentage points in recent years. Comparisons between Treasury and mortgage rates are illustrated, with examples from recent data and artificial intelligence providing spread estimates.

Long-range mortgage rate forecasts are based on historical norms and broad expectations. Factors like Treasury performance, spread variations, and changes in monetary policy can impact these forecasts. While no prediction anticipates a 3% mortgage rate, unforeseen events could alter the trajectory of rates over the next five years.

The analysis predicts 2027 mortgage rates to be around 6.28% to 6.48%. Mortgage rates are not expected to drop significantly in the next five years, but unforeseen economic disruptions could change this outlook. Considering an adjustable-rate mortgage depends on factors like how long you plan to stay in the financed home.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years: 2026-2030