On Jan. 3, 2026, US forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with President Trump stating the US will oversee Venezuela until a transition is in place. The US aims to boost private investment in Venezuela’s oil sector, which holds an estimated 300 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia.

Venezuela’s oil production has plummeted due to nationalization in the 1970s and asset seizures by former president Hugo Chavez. US administration faces challenges attracting investments, as operators fear asset seizures and uncertainty over future governance. Revamping infrastructure will require substantial capital and may take years.

Morningstar does not plan to adjust its oil price estimates, projecting Brent at $65/bbl and WTI at $60/bbl. Venezuela needs major investments to modernize infrastructure, but won’t likely attract them until US shale production peaks. Near-term price movement may occur, but markets anticipate supply disruptions and a potential glut.

Read more at Morningstar: We Don’t Expect Changes to Our Oil Price Forecast or Fair Value Estimates from Maduro’s Ouster