Sugar prices are on the rise today, with NY world sugar #11 up +1.03% and London ICE white sugar #5 up +0.60%. This increase is attributed to the strong Brazilian real fueling short covering in sugar futures.

Last week, Indian sugar production saw a significant jump of 25% year-over-year, reaching 11.90 MMT. The India Sugar Mill Association raised its 2025/26 production estimate to 31 MMT, potentially boosting sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.

India may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season. This news comes after a quota system was introduced in 2022/23 due to limited supplies from reduced production.

NY sugar reached a 2.5-month high as expectations of lower future sugar supplies from Brazil surfaced. Safras & Mercado predicts a 3.91% decrease in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 and an 11% drop in sugar exports.

The International Sugar Organization projects a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% y/y to 181.8 million MT. Czarnikow raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT.

The USDA forecasts a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, with a +4.6% increase year-over-year. Brazil’s sugar production is expected to rise by 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT, while India’s production may increase by 25% to 35.25 MMT. Thailand’s sugar production is projected to rise by +2% to 10.25 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Push Higher on Strength in the Brazilian Real