Crude oil and gasoline prices surged today, with crude hitting a 2.25-month high and gasoline reaching a 5-week high. President Trump’s heightened rhetoric on Iran sparked concerns of crude supply disruptions. Unrest in Iran triggered violent protests, with security forces killing hundreds, leading to potential disruptions in crude production.

The upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indexes is expected to drive $2.2 billion in futures contracts for oil. Crude oil stored on tankers decreased by 0.3% to 120.9 million bbl. Chinese crude demand is strong, with imports set to increase by 10% to 12.2 million bpd in December, a record high.

OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases in Q1 2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited crude oil exports. The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026. OPEC aims to restore 2.2 million bpd of production cut in early 2024.

The IEA predicts a record world crude surplus of 3.815 million bpd in 2026. OPEC revised Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus. US crude production reached 13.59 million bpd. EIA reported US crude oil inventories below the seasonal average, while gasoline and distillate inventories were above and below, respectively.

Baker Hughes reported a decrease in active US oil rigs to 409, just above a 4.25-year low. The number of US oil rigs has significantly dropped from a high in December 2022. Rich Asplund has no positions in mentioned securities. The article is for informational purposes only.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Oil Prices Rally as Iranian Tensions Escalate