Global sugar prices fell on Friday, with NY world sugar #11 down -1.54% and London ICE white sugar #5 down -1.64%. Higher global sugar production, particularly in Brazil, is pushing prices lower. India’s sugar output is up +22% y/y, potentially leading to increased exports and further price declines.

India may allow additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut. Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT. Brazil is expected to have record sugar output, while the UK sees high long positions in white sugar futures which could lead to price drops.

Consulting firm Safras & Mercado predicts a decrease in Brazil’s sugar production in 2026/27. On the bearish side, the International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus driven by production increases in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Thailand’s sugar production is expected to rise by +5% y/y, contributing to the oversupply issue.

The USDA projects record global sugar production for 2025/26, leading to a surplus. Brazil and India are expected to increase production, while Thailand anticipates a +5% y/y rise. Strong supply forecasts continue to weigh on sugar prices, despite some positive market factors.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Slide on Abundant Global Supplies