Oil market analysts see oversupply continuing in 2026, with 100% agreement on the market being oversupplied. Global oil demand is forecasted to grow by 930,000 barrels daily this year, up from 850,000 in 2025, driven by economic rebound and low prices. Production declined in December, but supply is expected to slow as demand strengthens.

Oil benchmarks are 16% lower than a year ago, reflecting a buildup of global crude oil stocks. Demand estimates vary, with the World Bank expecting between 103.8-104.5 million barrels daily, while Statista suggests 105.5 million barrels daily for 2025. Prices remain low due to surplus predictions, but as producers respond, the supply cushion will thin.

OPEC disputes the IEA’s surplus narrative, predicting a smoother return to market balance with strong demand. Aramco’s CEO warns against oil supply complacency, emphasizing the need for spare capacity. The IEA has been criticized for overstating the surplus, prompting a U-turn on peak oil and gas demand forecasting. Price spikes due to production suspensions highlight the oil market’s volatility.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Low Prices, Strong Demand, and the Cracks in the Oil Glut Story