Crude oil and gasoline prices closed lower on Monday, with March WTI crude oil down -0.72% and March RBOB gasoline down -1.67%. Prices fell back after last Friday’s rally. Crude oil prices fell due to long liquidation pressure and easing disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports after a Black Sea terminal was brought back into service. Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev oil fields have been closed since last week due to power generator fires, curbing some 900,000 bpd of crude production.
Crude oil prices rallied nearly +3% last Friday after Russia threw cold water on hopes of a breakthrough in peace talks with Ukraine and after President Trump revived the possibility of US military action against Iran by sending a naval armada to the region. There was also concern about supply disruptions due to the massive storm that crossed the US. The Kremlin said the “territorial issue” with Ukraine remains unresolved, keeping restrictions on Russian crude in place and bullish for oil prices.
The IEA cut its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd, while the EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd and cut its US 2026 energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion btu. Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -0.6% w/w to 113.30 million bbl in the week ended January 23, according to Vortexa.
OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026 to address the emerging global oil surplus. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers, along with new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, have limited Russian oil exports. The EIA report showed US crude inventories below the seasonal 5-year average.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US oil rigs rose by +1 to 411 rigs in the week ended January 23, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Oil Falls Back as Kazakhstan’s Oil Disruptions Ease