In 2025, U.S. 30-year Treasury Bond futures rose by 1.18%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell by 0.19%. Predictions for 2026 suggest lower interest rates, with current trends indicating another year of sideways trading.

Long bond futures and TLT ETF prices remained relatively stable in late January 2025, maintaining a narrow trading range since October 2023. U.S. long bond futures have been consolidating between 110-01 and 127-22 since 2024, narrowing further in 2025.

The U.S. Federal Reserve may see changes in leadership as President Trump appoints a new Fed Chairman with dovish views. Despite previous rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, long-term interest rates remain high, but further reductions in 2026 could impact longer-term rates.

New Fed appointments and a dovish Chairman may lead to lower short-term rates, potentially affecting long-term rates. Factors like inflation above 2%, rising U.S. debt, and geopolitical events could influence long-term bond prices and TLT ETF trends.

Despite recent volatility, long-term U.S. interest rates are expected to remain sideways in early 2026. Various factors may push bonds and TLT ETF in opposite directions, potentially leading to another year of sideways trading in long-term interest rates.

Gold and silver prices are on the rise, indicating inflationary pressures that could support elevated long-term interest rates. The path of least resistance for long-term U.S. interest rates continues to be sideways, with bullish and bearish factors influencing market trends.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Why are U.S. Bonds and Interest Rates Stuck in Neutral in Early 2026?