March Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.73%, hitting a 4-week low due to forecasts of above-average US temperatures reducing heating demand. Higher US nat-gas production projections also weighed on prices, with active rigs hitting a 2.5-year high. A 3-year price surge in January was driven by Arctic cold disrupting production.

US dry gas production is up 6.8% y/y, while lower-48 state gas demand is down 11.2% y/y. LNG net flows to US export terminals are up 2.6% w/w. Bullish factors include rising electricity output, with a +21.4% y/y increase in electricity production last week.

Last week’s EIA report showed a record -360 bcf draw in nat-gas inventories, signaling tight supplies. European gas storage is at 37%, below the 5-year average of 54%. Baker Hughes reported a rise in active US nat-gas drilling rigs to a 2.5-year high, up from a 4.75-year low in 2024.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Above-Normal US Temps Undercut Nat-Gas Prices