Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, revised its forecast for when oil demand will peak to the mid-2030s, predicting a peak of around 112 million barrels per day by 2040. Current global demand hovers above 100 million bpd, driven by factors like population growth and urbanization.

The slower adoption of electric vehicles in the US and Asia is a key factor in Vitol’s updated demand projections, offset by faster adoption in emerging markets and a positive outlook for electric heavy commercial vehicles. The firm also anticipates rising demand for jet fuel and LPG to continue driving oil consumption.

Industry predictions of a prolonged oversupply and price decline through early 2026 have been upended by geopolitical events and stronger-than-expected demand, pushing oil prices up this year. Brent crude is up 11% and West Texas Intermediate crude is up 10.4%, with ongoing US-Iran talks on nuclear enrichment adding to market uncertainty.

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