Morningstar released the quarterly Market Observer report, featuring detailed analysis of market performance and key macro trends. The report includes a stunning chart depicting US stock market history over the past century, with expansions, downturns, and recoveries highlighted.

The current expansion, in its 25th month as of December 2025, is not unusually strong compared to historical data. The average expansion since 1926 lasted 69 months, with a 224% cumulative return. The current expansion has a 21.4% per year return, aligning with historical averages.

Contrary to popular belief, the current bull market is not long in the tooth. On average, it takes 37 months for the market to recover from a prior decline. With the average expansion lasting 69 months, there is still time before reaching the next peak.

Despite fears of one bear market erasing gains, historical data shows the market’s resilience through adversity. Over the past century, the market spent 142 months in bear markets and 349 months recovering to previous highs. Preparation for adversity is crucial, but stocks have shown long-term success despite setbacks.

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