Sugar prices surged on Monday, with NY and London sugar hitting multi-week highs. The strong Brazilian real is supporting prices, discouraging export sales. A record-high short position by funds in NY sugar futures could fuel a short-covering rally. Signs of lower sugar output in Brazil are also pushing prices up.

On February 12, sugar prices hit 5.25-year lows due to concerns about a global sugar surplus. Analysts predict surpluses for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 crop years. Consulting firm Safras & Mercado expects a drop in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27. India’s sugar output is up, potentially leading to higher exports.

India approved additional sugar exports for the 2025/26 season, increasing the likelihood of higher exports. Thailand projects a 5% increase in sugar production for 2025/26, which could further weigh on prices. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.

The USDA projects record global sugar production for 2025/26, with an increase in human consumption. Ending stocks are expected to fall, with Brazil and India both seeing production increases. Thailand’s sugar production is also forecasted to rise. Sugar prices are reacting to a complex mix of global supply and demand factors.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Push Higher on Brazilian Real Strength