Alibaba’s Q1 Preview: Navigating A Tough Chinese Economy
From Nasdaq: 2024-07-31 20:48:50
Alibaba stock has underperformed this year, with only a 1% gain compared to Amazon’s 21%. Q1 FY’25 results are expected to be around $34.5 billion in revenue and $2.10 per share in earnings, with weak Chinese economic data and e-commerce competition impacting performance.
China’s economy struggles, with GDP at 4.7% and weak consumer spending affecting Alibaba’s e-commerce business. Revenue from Taobao and Tmall rose by 4% in Q4 FY’24, while PDD gains e-commerce market share. Alibaba’s cloud computing revenue grew by only 3% as demand slows post-lockdown.
BABA stock has declined by 65% since January 2021, underperforming the S&P 500 over the past three years. However, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has consistently outperformed the S&P 500. Alibaba’s valuation is compelling at under 10x forward earnings, with a potential 36% upside to $107 per share.
In July 2024, BABA stock returned 9%, compared to the S&P 500’s 0% return. Since 2017, Alibaba has seen a total return of -10%, while the S&P 500 has gained 144%. Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio has seen a total return of 689% since the end of 2016, showcasing strong performance compared to Alibaba and the S&P 500.
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