S&P 500 missed usual Santa rally, increasing vulnerability in 2025

From Investing.com: 2025-01-06 13:58:56

The S&P 500 closed December 2024 down 2.5%, missing its usual Santa Claus rally. Historically, this period is bullish 79% of the time, with an average return of 1.6%. A down January without this rally could trigger a bearish “January Barometer,” predicting a tough year for equities.

Key technical levels to watch now include support near the 2024 Presidential election gap at 5864-5783. A breakdown could form a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, while breaking above resistance at 6017-6050 could negate the bearish outlook.

The lackluster start to 2025 adds uncertainty for the first half, historically resulting in weaker first-quarter returns and slightly better but negligible returns in the first half. The market’s trajectory in January will set the tone for a potentially volatile year, especially as 2025 kicks off the Presidential Cycle.



Read more at Investing.com: No Santa rally leaves S&P 500 vulnerable in 2025, BofA says By Investing.com