From Investing.com: 2025-02-09 02:28:00

The main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 predicts another disinflationary wave hitting the US, with inflation expected to annualize at or below 2%. Leading indicators suggest a last wave of disinflation, with shelter inflation playing a significant role. Weakness in the housing market is emerging, signaled by a return to 2019 backlog levels for big homebuilders like D.R. Horton. Job openings in the construction sector are shrinking, indicating a potential slowdown in the housing sector. This could lead to a disinflationary slowdown in growth, prompting a dovish stance from the Fed and potential cuts in interest rates. Bonds offer an interesting risk/reward if the disinflationary thesis proves correct.



Read more at Investing.com: Could the Market Have Mispriced Inflation Odds?