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Earnings Preview: Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) – Q4 2024

by Market News Data

Earnings Release Date: February 20, 2025 (After Market Close)
Estimated EPS: $35.82
Estimated Revenue: $5.18B

Financial Performance Overview

Year-over-Year (YoY) and Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) Comparisons:

  • Q4 2023 (Last Year):
    • EPS: $32.00 → Expected +12% YoY
    • Revenue: $4.78B → Expected +8% YoY
  • Q3 2024 (Last Quarter):
    • EPS: $83.89 → Estimated -57% QoQ (seasonal factors impacting profitability)
    • Revenue: $8.00B → Estimated -35% QoQ

Key Metrics from Q3 2024 Earnings Report:

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $3.7B (45.8% margin, exceeding expectations)
  • Free Cash Flow: $2.3B
  • Alternative Accommodations: 14% YoY growth, making up 35% of total bookings
  • Loyalty Program (Genius): Accounted for mid-50% of all bookings
  • Room Nights Growth: 8% YoY

Q4 2024 Guidance & Strategic Outlook

Revenue Growth Expectation: +7–9% YoY
Room Nights Growth: +6–8% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: +9–13% YoY

Growth Catalysts:

  • Strong Demand for Travel: Travel demand remains resilient, particularly in Europe & Asia.
  • Expansion in Asia: High single-digit growth expected over the next five years.
  • AI-driven Innovations: Enhanced personalization & automation via AI-powered tools.
  • Alternative Accommodations: Booking’s Airbnb-like segment continues to expand, outpacing traditional hotel bookings.

Key Risks:

  • Seasonality: Q4 earnings expected to drop significantly from Q3 due to lower holiday travel demand.
  • Macroeconomic Headwinds: Inflation and geopolitical uncertainties could impact future travel bookings.
  • U.S. Market Competition: Still trailing competitors in key U.S. vacation rental markets.

Recent Developments & Industry Positioning

  • Super Bowl Advertising (Feb 2025): Featuring The Muppets, showcasing platform diversity.
  • AI Tech Advisor (Dec 2024): AI-driven hotel tech recommendation tool.
  • Asian Market Expansion: New payment methods across eight Asian markets.
  • Operational Efficiency Drive: Workforce reductions announced in Nov 2024.

Competitive Insight:
Expedia (EXPE) reported a 12% increase in room nights and a 21% increase in Adjusted EBITDA in its latest quarter, suggesting strong travel demand. BKNG’s Q4 earnings will likely reflect similar trends.

Stock & Technical Levels

Resistance: $5268, $5300
Support: $4678, $4690
50-day SMA: $4942 (Bullish trend)
RSI: 62.5 (Near overbought levels)

Trading Outlook:

  • Bullish Scenario: A break above $5268 could open upside momentum.
  • Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $4678 could signal a deeper pullback.

Earnings Play & Market Expectations

Likely Outcome: BKNG is positioned to meet or slightly beat expectations, but a major upside surprise is less likely given macro risks and seasonal trends.

Stock Reaction Scenarios:

  • Beat on EPS & Revenue: Stock likely tests $5300+
  • Meets Expectations: Neutral reaction, holding within $4940-$5200
  • Misses Estimates: Stock could dip to $4700-$4750 range

Final Takeaway

Booking Holdings continues to leverage its AI-driven personalization, alternative accommodations, and strong Asian market expansion to fuel growth. However, seasonality, inflation, and competition in the U.S. pose risks.

Short-term traders should watch resistance levels, while long-term investors may see further upside from AI & market expansion strategies.

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