From Investing.com: 2025-02-21 09:16:00

German National Election (SUN): The German national election is expected to result in another coalition government, with CDU/CSU likely leading with Merz as Chancellor. The possibility of a ‘Grand’ coalition with SPD as the junior partner is high, which would be seen as pro-growth. However, the focus shifts to whether Die Linke, FDP, and BSW meet the threshold to enter the Bundestag, affecting the likelihood of debt-brake reform. Voting takes place on Sunday, February 23rd, with results expected to shape the future government.

China NPC Standing Committee (MON/TUE): China’s National People’s Congress will hold its 14th session to prepare for the third session of the 14th NPC in March. Key legislative topics include a draft private economy promotion law and revisions to civil aviation law. PBoC is expected to cut the 7-day RRR rate in Q1 to mitigate economic risks. Bank of Korea is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.75% following a dovish stance towards further cuts.

Australian CPI (WED): Australian CPI for January is expected at 2.5%, with data crucial for RBA policy decisions following a recent rate cut. Analysts forecast a 2.4% Y/Y metric, emphasizing historical declines in household goods and rising food costs. RBA remains cautious despite a strong job market and hints at further rate cuts. The data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential future policy adjustments by the central bank.

ECB Minutes (THU): Following a 25bps rate cut, the ECB maintains a data-dependent approach to policy. Lagarde’s comments indicate a cautious stance towards further easing, with policymakers viewing policy as “restrictive.” Markets await insights on potential future rate cuts and economic assessments. The release of the minutes will provide clarity on the ECB’s decision-making process and outlook for monetary policy.

Japanese Tokyo CPI (THU): The Tokyo CPI is expected to decline to 2.3% in February, reflecting a mix of rising food costs and declining energy prices. BoJ monitors consumer pass-through of rising food prices amid policy considerations. Analysts suggest a hold on rates until September, with a focus on economic recovery and price trends. The data will offer insights into inflation trends and future BoJ policy decisions.

US PCE (FRI): January PCE is expected at 0.3% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y, with core metrics rising 0.3% M/M. The data reflects consumer spending trends and inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Powell’s recent testimony indicates a cautious approach to rate adjustments based on economic indicators. Markets anticipate future rate cuts based on inflation and economic performance. The PCE release will provide insights into consumer spending patterns and inflation trends.

Canadian GDP (FRI): December and Q4 GDP growth data will be released, with expectations slightly below the BoC’s estimate. Solid domestic demand growth contrasts with weak business investment, highlighting economic uncertainties. Trade dynamics and government spending play a crucial role in economic growth. The data will offer insights into Canada’s economic performance and outlook amidst global uncertainties.



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