Weak GDP growth rate for Q1 revised down to -2.8%, potential for stagflation.

From Investing.com: 2025-03-04 00:11:00

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model revised Q1’s real GDP growth rate from 2.5% to -2.8% due to imports and weak construction data. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index was -16.5. The ISM report for February was 50.3, with new orders and employment below 50. February’s NM-PMI will be released soon. The M-PMI and NM-PMI may not accurately reflect GDP growth rates. Personal income rose in January, but consumption fell. Real consumption growth for Q1 was lowered to 0.0%. Overall, real GDP is expected to increase by 1.5-2.5% in Q1, with a 20% chance of stagflation.



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