Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey
From CNBC: 2025-03-18 06:52:18
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee, discussing the economic outlook. Respondents in the March CNBC Fed Survey raised recession risk to 36%, cut growth forecast for 2025, and raised inflation outlook. Concerns over Trump administration’s fiscal policies, especially tariffs, are seen as top threats to the economy.
Survey respondents, including fund managers and analysts, raised recession probability to 36% from 23% in January. GDP forecast for 2025 dropped to 1.7% from 2.4%, bouncing back to 2.1% in 2026. Most believe Fed will cut rates at least twice this year due to policy uncertainty from tariffs and weaker growth.
Over 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs, and growth, with 34% saying they will decrease US manufacturing. Concerns over global trade war, government job cuts, aggressive deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push the economy into recession. Powell faces challenges due to tariff uncertainties impacting growth.