Proposed SNAP cuts could pressure low-income shoppers and retailers
From CNBC: 2025-04-16 09:00:00
House Republicans are proposing a $230 billion cut to the USDA budget to fund tax cuts, with potential reductions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The plan faces hurdles in Congress, where differing bills must be reconciled. Retailers like Walmart and Kroger could see sales threatened by changes to food assistance funding.
SNAP participants spend 20% more on groceries than non-participants. The program accounts for 4% of total U.S. food spending, benefiting Walmart, Kroger, General Mills, and PepsiCo. States like Arkansas and Indiana are seeking to limit SNAP purchases, with support from the Trump administration to ban purchases of soda and junk food.
With 42.1 million Americans relying on SNAP benefits to buy groceries, proposed funding cuts come amid inflationary pricing. Dollar General and Walmart have noted strain among low-income shoppers, as escalating tariffs raise concerns about rising prices. Consumer sentiment has declined across all demographics, affecting luxury retailers like Restoration Hardware and LVMH.
Potential SNAP cuts could impact food and beverage companies like Hershey and General Mills, with nearly 9% of food-at-home spending coming from SNAP recipients. General Mills, J.M. Smucker, Kraft Heinz, and Tyson Foods are among those most exposed to cuts. Beverage companies could also feel the impact, as 5% of SNAP benefits are spent on soda alone. Approximately 9% of SNAP spending goes towards “sweetened beverages,” which includes energy drinks, juices, and powder mixes. This puts companies like Monster at risk due to their exposure to the energy drink category and lower-income consumers. Coca-Cola and PepsiCo may also see sales decrease, but their diversified portfolios and global demand help offset the risk.
Walmart remains the top choice for consistent SNAP shoppers, with nearly 26% market share. While attracting wealthier shoppers, the retailer focuses on offering affordable options, including private label versions of national brands. Kroger and Albertsons round out the top three grocers for SNAP shoppers, capturing 9% and nearly 7% of the group’s annual grocery spend, respectively.
Dollar stores like Dollar General and Dollar Tree are most exposed to changes in SNAP benefits, with about 60% of Dollar General’s sales coming from households earning less than $30,000 annually. Changes in SNAP benefits could impact dollar store sales, leading to potential shifts in product offerings and affecting food and beverage companies.
Despite the Trump administration’s support, states face challenges in banning sugary drinks and junk food from SNAP due to opposition from suppliers. Previous attempts have failed on the state level, and court challenges to the USDA’s legal authority to grant state waivers are possible. Shrinking the program could have economic implications, reducing funds flowing to retailers, farmers markets, and other businesses. 1. The stock market saw a significant drop today, with the S&P 500 falling by 2.5% due to concerns over rising inflation rates. This marks the largest one-day decline since February.
2. The unemployment rate has dropped to 5.8%, showing signs of recovery from the pandemic-induced economic downturn. This is the lowest rate since March 2020.
3. The CDC has announced that fully vaccinated individuals can now resume most activities without wearing a mask or social distancing. This comes as a major milestone in the fight against COVID-19.
4. Tesla has reported a record-breaking quarterly profit of $438 million, driven by strong sales and cost-cutting measures. The electric car company continues to dominate the market with its innovative technology.
5. The housing market continues to boom, with home prices reaching an all-time high in April. The median price for existing homes has risen to $341,600, up 19% from last year. Buyers are facing fierce competition and limited inventory.
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